The federal government administers nearly 80 different overlapping federal means-tested welfare programs. Food stamps and Medicaid make up a large and growing chunk of the more than 100 million recipients. The data for the following bar chart come from the U.S. Census’s Survey of Income and Program Participation.
The focus of the blog is on the economic and financial uncertainties that the world economies will face over the next five years along with demonstrating how investors can profit and survive during the upcoming manipulated economic chaos. Please keep-in-mind that I don't provide investment advice. I am simply posting what my investment views of the market happen to be. Your investment decisions are solely your own responsibility.
Wednesday, August 08, 2012
Monday, August 06, 2012
Household Data: A9 Selective Employment Data
I am so tired of all the half-truths about the
employment situation since
2008. These half-truths remind be what
Joseph Goebbels said, “If you repeat a lie often enough, it
becomes the truth.” And, what Vladimir Lenin said, “A lie told often enough becomes the
truth.” Therefore, I am here put
the record straight about our employment situation. The following employment numbers “do not”
include statistical seasonal adjustments nor birth/death adjustments, just real
jobs!
The following table illustrates full-time employed
individuals, who are at least 16 years of age and work more than 35 hours per
week:
|
Time
|
Employment
|
Change
|
|
2008 Annual FT Employment
|
120,030,000
|
N/A
|
|
July 2012 FT Employment
|
116,131,000
|
-3,899,000
|
Therefore, since 2008, actual full-time jobs declined by
over 3.8 million individuals.
The next table illustrates part-time employed individuals,
who are at least 16 years of age and work less than 35 hours per week:
(Keep-in-mind that these jobs do not provide benefits, such as health insurance
nor 401-k plans.)
|
Time
|
Employment
|
Change
|
|
2008 Annual PT Employment
|
25,332,000
|
N/A
|
|
July 2012 PT Employment
|
26,995,000
|
+1,663,000
|
Since 2008, actual part-time employment increased over 1.6
million individuals. Therefore, actual
net employment, part- and full-time, declined by 2,236,000 individuals.
Source: BLS
Saturday, August 04, 2012
Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU)
Friday saw the INDU soar by over 200 points on the so-called 163,000 job creation number for July. (However, if you followed by post from yesterday, you know that those jobs were nothing but a statistical, pie-in-the-sky occurrence made up by the seasonal adjustment factor and one of the largest birth/death adjustments for the month of July.)
Bottom-line for the market is the simple fact that divergences have occurred among the "Full Stochastics, Volume, and Wm%R, which are all negative to the INDU. I am expecting a 500 decline back to the lower boundary of the BB. (See the following chart.)
Friday, August 03, 2012
Employment to Population Ratio
The relationship between the actual number of people employed to the total population is the ratio that I watch closely every month. Once again, why? Well, the more people employed the more taxes the government gets to collect in order to make all those entitlement payments every month and, of course, to reduce the size of the federal deficit. Therefore, you definitely want a large "employment to population ratio" to feed the beast. For July, the ratio was 58.8%, down from 58.9% in June.
NFP +163,000 Jobs for July
The Bureau of Lies and Shame (BLS) really did it this time. Why, you may ask? Well, of the 163,000 jobs add for July, 429,000 was based on purely statistical fudging. That is, seasonal and birth/death adjustments, or phantom jobs. The bottom line is when you subtract off those statistical made jobs, we actually lost 266,000 jobs.
Thursday, August 02, 2012
Government Motors (GM) Profits Slip 41%
Say it ain't true! Yes, I am afraid it is true. Profits fell 41% in the second quarter of 2012 as troubles in Europe was a major drag on sales in North America for Government Motors. If you have been reading my blog over the past two weeks, you would know why GM car sales have been robust here in the United States. If not, I will succinctly repeat the two reasons: (1) car stuffing by GM, which simply means revenues are recorded when cars leave the production line to the dealer but not yet sold by the dealer, and (2) FICO scores in the upper 500s to qualify to purchase a car, which is by all standards sub-prime at best. In other words, welcome to the encore performance of 2008.
Tuesday, July 31, 2012
This is Just Not Right!
You probably have one of their gasoline gas cans in your garage, because it has 70 to 75% (or did have) of the portable gas cans sold in the United States. However, Blitz will close its operations today, July 31, which will put 300 employees out of work. Why? What happen? The reason is that the company has spent $30 million defending product-liability suits and owes $3.5 million in lawyer fees. So, the company must have been producing defective cans that split open and spilled gasoline where it could catch fire. No, that would definitely be the logical response. “The lawsuits have involved adult individuals who have used gasoline to start a fire or accelerate a fire.” Even though Blitz's gas cans are imprinted with safety guidelines approved by the American Society for Testing and Materials that clearly state gasoline should never be used to start a fire. However, in this day and age, it does not prevent consumers from ignoring the guidelines and taking the manufacturers of gas cans to court.
So, there you have a company that has been in business for nearly 50 years and because of our present tort system of litigation will now cease to exist. Oh, where do you think those gas cans will now be produced? Can anyone say "CHINA."
Monday, July 30, 2012
Sunday, July 29, 2012
Swipe Fees for Using Plastic
Saturday, July 28, 2012
Friday, July 27, 2012
Government Motors (GM) Ramps Up Risky Subprime Auto Loans To Drive Sales
President Obama has touted GM as a successful example of his administration's policies. Yet, GM's recovery is built, at least in part, on the increasing use of subprime loans. (Remember that GM counts a vehicle sold when it leaves the production line. However, all those GM vehicles are not good for the financial health of its dealers. Therefore, in order to move vehicles off those dealer lots, GM has lowered the FICO scores of those eligible to buy those cars.)
Now, in regard to those FICO scores, potential borrowers of car loans are rated on scores that range from 300 to 850. Anything under "660" is generally deemed subprime. So, now you can guess how GM is helping to move all that inventory off dealers' lots. GM Financial auto loans to customers with FICO scores below 660 rose from 87% of total loans in Q4 2010 to 93% in Q1 2012. And, believe it or not, the worse the FICO score, the bigger the increase. From Q4 2010 to Q1 2012, GM Financial loans to customers with the worst FICO scores (below 540) shot up 79% to more than $2.3 billion. The second worst category, 540-599, rose 28% from about $3.4 billion to $4.3 billion.
According to Investor's Daily News, by spring of 2010 GM's new management, led by North American executive Mark Reuss, wanted to move back into subprime car loans, fearing that GM couldn't compete without granting such loans to the very worst credit worthy customers.
GM still owes about $26.4 billion in direct aid to the federal government. The Treasury owns 26.5% of the automaker, or 500 million shares. The stock price would need to be $53 to recoup those taxpayer costs. GM shares closed Friday at $19.67.
Now, in regard to those FICO scores, potential borrowers of car loans are rated on scores that range from 300 to 850. Anything under "660" is generally deemed subprime. So, now you can guess how GM is helping to move all that inventory off dealers' lots. GM Financial auto loans to customers with FICO scores below 660 rose from 87% of total loans in Q4 2010 to 93% in Q1 2012. And, believe it or not, the worse the FICO score, the bigger the increase. From Q4 2010 to Q1 2012, GM Financial loans to customers with the worst FICO scores (below 540) shot up 79% to more than $2.3 billion. The second worst category, 540-599, rose 28% from about $3.4 billion to $4.3 billion.
According to Investor's Daily News, by spring of 2010 GM's new management, led by North American executive Mark Reuss, wanted to move back into subprime car loans, fearing that GM couldn't compete without granting such loans to the very worst credit worthy customers.
GM still owes about $26.4 billion in direct aid to the federal government. The Treasury owns 26.5% of the automaker, or 500 million shares. The stock price would need to be $53 to recoup those taxpayer costs. GM shares closed Friday at $19.67.
The America That I No Longer Recognize
So sad but so very true is the fact that June 2012 saw 46.5 million Americans on "food stamps," which is a 222,157 increase in the month, or nearly three times the number of people who found jobs according to the BLS. To make matters worse, the total number of Americans on disability is at 8.7 million, which is an all-time high. If you can not find a job and your extended benefits have run out, individuals are going on disability. (Have you noticed all those TV commercials by attorneys offering their services to get you on disability?)
Tuesday, July 24, 2012
Government Motors (GM) Stock Slides To Fresh Post-Bankruptcy Lows
Wow! Look at the very close correlation between GM's stock price and dealers' inventories, which is on an inverted scale. GM books revenues when the vehicles leave the factory and on the way to the dealer (dealer stuffing). However, dealers have yet to sell those cars, which is a good way to cook those financial books at GM but lousy for all those loyal GM dealers. What the chart is telling us is that Wall Street has finally caught on to all those "phantom" sales at GM. Of course, nobody (lemmings, that is) could have possibly predicted the reaction to GM's stock price by increasing inventories at dealers.
Monday, July 23, 2012
You are Screwed!
The
current federal deficit (spending > revenues) as a percentage of GDP is
slightly more than 10%. Now, what was
the growth rate of GDP last year, 2011?
Answer: ≈ 2%. Therefore, without
that deficit spending, the economy grew at a negative 8%. Why is no one with the exception Karl
Denninger at “Market-Ticker” discussing the negative impact of federal deficits
on the GDP in the long run? These
federal deficits are not sustainable going forward. Deficits have to be financed by issuing more
debt. There is
almost no historical precedent where debt paid by the addition of more and more
debt has been a successful operation. When this fact is recognized for what it is, the
economy will tank into that infamous “Great Depression” abyss. I know some of you are probably thinking that
the government will never allow that to happen, because the Federal Reserve
System is “omnipotence and omniscience.” Well, if you continue to believe that
Pollyannaism, I do question your economic sanity. And, when the managed economic chaos occurs,
I hope you remember that someone did forewarn you.
Who Really Invented the Internet?
If the government nor Senator Gore nor the Pentagon didn't invent the internet, who did? According to Gordon Crovitz in today's Wall Street Journal, full credit goes to "Xerox PARC" labs in Silicon Valley in the 1970s where the Ethernet was developed to link different computer networks.
"According to a book about Xerox PARC, "Dealers of Lightning" (by Michael Hiltzik), its top researchers realized they couldn't wait for the government to connect different networks, so would have to do it themselves." So having created the internet, why didn't Xerox become the biggest company in the world? It was too focused on selling copiers. From their standpoint, the Ethernet was important only so that people in an office could link computers to share a copier. Then, in 1979, Steve Jobs negotiated an agreement whereby Xerox's venture-capital division invested $1 million in Apple, with the requirement that Jobs get a full briefing on all the Xerox PARC innovations. They just had no idea what they had, Jobs later said, after launching hugely profitable Apple computers using concepts developed by Xerox."
Why is this diatribe about the internet important? I would say to set the record straight, because it's too often wrongly cited to justify the existence of big government.
Thursday, July 19, 2012
State Budget Crisis: Worse to Worse
"States around the country face a fiscal crisis that will only worsen without action, according to a report released this week by the State Budget Crisis Task Force, co-chaired by Richard Ravitch and Paul A. Volcker. Threats to fiscal sustainability include rising health care spending, federal budget cuts, unfunded pension promises, eroding tax bases, budget laws and local governments' financial woes, according to the report. Its conclusions are based on an examination of six heavily populated states: California, Illinois, New Jersey, New York, Texas and Virginia."
Now, you know why I just included "Eschaton" in the title of my blog, Financial Insights for Eschaton.
Now, you know why I just included "Eschaton" in the title of my blog, Financial Insights for Eschaton.
Facts about U.S. Manufacturing
Who leads the world in manufacturing? Answer: United States! Yes, you read that correctly. I had to do some checking, but the U.S. does lead the world in manufacturing. We produce 21% of global manufactured products, while China comes second at 15%. Japan is third at 12%. According to the National Association of Manufacturers, manufacturing supports an estimated 17 million jobs in the U.S., which is about one in six private sector jobs.
We have heard a lot of talk recently by both political parties about "outsourcing" jobs. But, what about "insourced" jobs? "Insourced" jobs, which are jobs brought to America by foreign-based companies, account for nearly 5% of private-sector employment. And, according to the Organization for International Investment, these businesses buy more than $1.8 trillion in goods and services from local suppliers and small businesses.
Therefore, the next time you hear all this talk about "outsourcing," please remember that the other side of the coin is "insourcing" of jobs to the United States.
We have heard a lot of talk recently by both political parties about "outsourcing" jobs. But, what about "insourced" jobs? "Insourced" jobs, which are jobs brought to America by foreign-based companies, account for nearly 5% of private-sector employment. And, according to the Organization for International Investment, these businesses buy more than $1.8 trillion in goods and services from local suppliers and small businesses.
Therefore, the next time you hear all this talk about "outsourcing," please remember that the other side of the coin is "insourcing" of jobs to the United States.
Wednesday, July 18, 2012
Canadians Now Richer than Americans
For the first time in recent history, the average Canadian is richer than the average American; and not just by a little. Currently, the average Canadian household is more than $40,000 richer than the average American household. To add insult to injury, not only are Canadians comparatively better-off than Americans, they're also more likely to be employed. The unemployment rate is 7.2 percent in Canada, while the U.S. is stuck with a stubbornly high rate of 8.2 percent.
Tuesday, July 17, 2012
Chevy Volt 60-Day Return Policy is Worth a $7,500 Tax Credit
General Motors has announced a "60 day money back guarantee policy for all new Chevy models, including the Chevy Volt." The move sets up a scenario where purchasers can buy a Volt, claim the $7,500 federal tax credit (and most likely state credits) and return the vehicle for a refund within 60 days and still get the tax credit. Did GM really not consider this glitch, or is this just another way for Government Motors to prop up politically important Volt sales leading up to November elections? Also, sales tax on a returned item is refundable, so it's even better. Title and registration fees would not be, but those are relatively minor compared to the $7,500 tax credit. The tax form for the credit is IRS 8936.
So, if you see me driving around a Chevy Volt, you will know it is for the tax credit; and I am probably on my way back to the dealer to return it. Thank you, American taxpayer. You are so very generous.
So, if you see me driving around a Chevy Volt, you will know it is for the tax credit; and I am probably on my way back to the dealer to return it. Thank you, American taxpayer. You are so very generous.
Monday, July 16, 2012
Taxes Do Matter
The one underlying agreement by both Austrian and Keynesian economists is that you don’t raise taxes in a recession or slow-growth environment. The United States faces a massive tax increases coming on January 1, 2013 along with continued deficit spending for years on end, which will lead to a massive economic collapse.
Small businesses have been the catalyst of job growth here in the United States, but that catalyst is now in great jeopardy because of the pending tax increases. Let me give an illustration that hopefully will drive home my point. “You have a small business that is incorporated. Currently, this business pays a corporate rate at the margin of 35%. You company makes a profit before taxes of $100. Given the marginal rate of 35%, your company pays Uncle Sam $35. This leaves the company, you, with an after tax profit of $65. Since you own the business, you give yourself a dividend of $65. However, this amount is currently taxed at 15%. So, at the end of the day, you have $55.75 to keep for yourself after paying out to Uncle Sam $44.75, or an effective tax rate of 44.75%, which does not include any state income taxes by the way. For 2013, the administration is proposing that the corporate tax be reduced to 28%, which is at least in the right direction, and increase the dividend tax rate to 43.4%, which is definitely not good news to small businesses. The consequences of these pending rate changes will be for you to keep $40.75 and pay out to Uncle Sam $59.25, or an effective tax rate of 59.25%.” Ouch, that will definitely hurt!
Bottom line is that for the small business owner his/her tax rate will effectively go from 44.75% to 59.25%. In other words, you take all the risk as the business owner and get to keep only $40.75 from every $100 that you, not the government, generate.
U.S. Corporate Tax Rate: Highest in the World
Japan, which had the highest corporate tax rate in the world at 39.8% rate
on business income between national and local taxes, cut its rate to
36.8% this past April 2012. The U.S. corporate tax now stands at 39.2% when both federal
and state rates are included, which puts us with dubious distinction of having the highest tax rate in the world! (At least we are #1 at something!) Taxes do matter, and they are about to collapse our already fragile economy. Please refer to the following graph.
Wednesday, July 11, 2012
Sunday, July 08, 2012
A Short History of Congress's Power to Tax
Paul Moreno in this week's Wall Street Journal's Opinion piece provides a very succinct overview of the taxing power of the U.S. Congress. (You may read his complete opinion by clicking here.) For those of you that do not want to read his entire opinion, the following excerpts are taking directly from Mr. Moreno:
The first enumerated power that the Constitution grants to Congress is the "power to lay and collect taxes, duties, imposts, and excises, to pay the debts and provide for the common defense and general welfare of the United States."
Congress enacted very few taxes up to the end of the Civil War, and none that was a pretext for regulating things that the Constitution gave it no power to regulate.
The first unabashed use of the taxing power for regulatory purposes came when Congress enacted a tax on "oleomargarine" in 1886. Dairy farmers tried to drive this cheaper butter substitute from the market but could only get Congress to adopt a mild tax, based on the claim that margarine was often artificially colored and fraudulently sold as butter.
Then, in 1914, Congress imposed taxes on druggists' sales of opiates as a way to regulate their use. Five years later, in U.S. v. Doremus , the Supreme Court upheld the levy under Congress's express power to impose excise taxes.
Then, in 1922, the court rejected Congress's attempt to prohibit child labor by imposing a tax on companies that employed children.
Things came to a head in the New Deal, when Congress imposed a tax on food and fiber processors and used those tax dollars to provide benefits to farmers. Though in U.S. v. Butler (1936) the court adopted a more expansive view of the taxing power—allowing Congress to tax and spend for the "general welfare" beyond the powers specifically enumerated in the Constitution—it still held the ends had to be "general" and not transfer payments from one group to another.
And now, in 2012, Justice Roberts has confirmed that there are no limits to regulatory taxation as long as the revenue is deposited in the U.S. Treasury."
Therefore, as long as Congress calls it a tax and the proceeds are deposited in the U.S. Treasury, it is constitutional. How long do you think that it will take our Congress to abuse this "renewed" power? That is why we need the Fair Tax, which would abolish the income tax completely, and get rid of the Internal Revenue Service. In addition it would repeal the 16th Amendment so income cannot be taxed. It would replace the income tax revenue with an equal amount using a national sales tax. Same tax dollars but a different point of collection. And, it would take away the ability of Congress to pass legislation and fund it with a so-called tax.
Friday, July 06, 2012
June's Non-Farm Payrolls: A Big Dud
Thursday, July 05, 2012
Wednesday, July 04, 2012
Picture Guide to Financial Markets Since 1800
A collection of almost 100 charts on asset price returns, correlations, volatility, valuations and many other market and macro factors for the US, UK, Europe, Japan, and Emerging Markets. A must read/view for the technical analyst. Click here to view all the charts.
Sunday, July 01, 2012
Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA)
Karl Denninger, Market-Ticker, had a great post today about the infamous "Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act," or simply ObamaCare. I have re-posted with some minor editing and comments from yours truly.
"Patient
Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA) sets forth a tax of $2,000 per employee for a business
that has 50 or more and does
not provide "at least" the minimum "insurance" to all. Ok, there is no health care plan I'm aware of
that a business can buy today that costs less than $2,000 per employee per year
and which also meets the requirements in the law. None. Therefore, the
incentive is for all businesses to drop health care and pay the tax. Period!
Now, your choices are to
either buy health insurance or pay a tax of 1% of income (increasing to 2.5% of
Adjusted Gross Income in 2016.) The minimum "fine" is $95
starting in 2013, rising to $695 in 2016. The average family income is
about $50,000/year, which means that the tax will be $1,250 in 2016. You cannot buy health insurance at their
"minimum level" for anything approaching $1,250 a year no matter
how healthy you are at any age. Therefore, like businesses, you will pay
the tax. Why? The question always comes up that I cannot be without health insurance.
Well, that was under the old “normal.” The new “normal is completely different.
Why? The law prohibits insurance companies from charging you more
if you're sick, or refusing to cover you at all. They must accept everyone on equal terms.
What are the potential consequences? First, businesses will drop
coverage; it's cheaper (by far) for them to pay the fine and, for those under
133% of the federal poverty level, those employees can go onto Medicaid.
This is a "family of four" income of $31,900 (as of today; it will go
up of course.) Second, individuals will drop coverage and pay the fine,
since it's far
cheaper than to buy the insurance."
Now, what is going to happen to insurance
costs when everyone only buys it when they need it, since they cannot be
denied? This question, of course, is
rhetorical, which does not need a rhetorical response. Just ponder what health
care will be like in five or ten years from now. Pretty scary, isn't it?
Friday, June 29, 2012
Smallmouth Bass Fishing in the Mink River
No, this is not a post about the "Affordable Health Care Act nor the Financial Markets." Right now it is about my fishing. Take a look at this little baby, which came in about 20 to 21 inches. This is the reason why I enjoy Smallmouth Bass fishing in the Mink River, which is located in Northern Wisconsin on the shores of Lake Michigan, on my kayak.
My bait of choice is "Canadian Crawlers." I use 6 lb. test with a #6 hook (18" from sinker), #6 split shot, and WD-40. Yes, you read that correctly, WD-40. It is amazing what you can do with the WD-40; that includes catching fish!
Wednesday, June 27, 2012
Hollande's Prescription for Economic Disaster
Since France's Socialist President François Hollande took office in mid-May, his government has instituted the following economic policies:
- Decreased the retirement age from 62 to 60.
- Increased the minimum wage rate by more than inflation.
- Created a special 3% tax on dividends.
- Instituted a maximum tax rate of 75%.
What has been the economic consequences so far from these actions? First, economic growth has evaporated. (France's national statistical office "Insee" is forecasting a further rise in the jobless rate, from the current 10%.) Second, an increase in taxes has already slowed down France's economy. Good job, Hollande. He is in office a little over a month, and his policies have doomed France. Why would anyone vote a Socialist into office? The answer is that you get to spend other people's money!
Tuesday, June 26, 2012
Monday, June 25, 2012
Defined Benefit Plans (Pensions)
Pension
funds are still using 8%
annualized returns as their internal rate of return. In a zero-interest
rate environment, you cannot even come close to approaching that return of 8%,
which, of course, forces these funds into risky asset classes, such as stocks and investment grade bonds (BBB). (Defined benefit plans are underfunded to the
amount in excess of $1 trillion.) Anyone
receiving a defined benefit payout better start learning to live on half of that
amount, which may not be conservative enough.
Why? Because those plans will take
a haircut of at least 50%, given the potential for an economic melt down over
the next four years. In other words,
learn to live with less, not more!
Saturday, June 23, 2012
Slaughterhouse Approaches
“Bull Tarts” depend on
government handouts and bailouts for their success. These are the only tools they have left. Real economic growth is not going to
happen for years.
But, perhaps the world is beginning
to collectively realize that those Wall Street lies have no substance, and that
bailouts are not the basis of prosperity after all. Those bailouts are nothing
more than popular delusions put forth by Wall Street that will cause bulls to
lose everything in the end.
So keep asking for your financial
bailouts and kidding yourselves that all really is ok, “Bull Tarts,” because
that slaughterhouse is fast approaching.
Friday, June 22, 2012
Federal Reserve System: Destroying the Function of our Capital Markets
The Fed is destroying the capital markets by pegging and manipulating the price of money (interest rates) and debt capital. Interest rates signal nothing any more as a mechanism of allocating money between lender and borrower, because interest rates are "zero." Capital markets are at the heart of the free market, and they are not working. Why? Because the Fed is manipulating every aspect of our so-called free market. And, we all know how well that is working!
Thursday, June 21, 2012
Tuesday, June 19, 2012
America's Welfare State: Electronic Benefit Transfer (EBT) Food Stamp Card
I know I am suppose to be on my "Summer Hiatus," however, I just could not pass on this one. After reading my post, I believe you will understand why I had to do a post on it. So, without any further ado, the state of New York would prohibit welfare recipients from spending their tax-funded benefits on cigarettes, alcohol, gambling, and strip clubs under a bill passed overwhelmingly by the state Senate on Tuesday. Wait, you mean you can not spend other people's money to pay for a lap dance? What crazy form of inhumane austerity is New York trying to pass? I hope the Department of Justice (Are you listening, Eric Holder?) looks into this inhumane bill. (LOL) But perhaps the scariest scenario is that New Yorkers actually do spend their EBT food stamp money, (no, taxpayers money), at strip clubs. Is any of this registering with you, American taxpayer? To put it mildly, I was outraged that individuals could use these EBT cards, which are designed to purchase food, to buy cigarettes, alcohol, gambling, and of course visit your local strip clubs. Click here for the article.
Tuesday, June 12, 2012
Monday, June 04, 2012
Friday, June 01, 2012
2012 and 2013 Will Usher in the End of Our Known Economic/Financial System: The Scariest Presentation Ever?
You may want to think twice before viewing this presentation. But, then again, it just may provide you with the impetus you need to make the necessary changes both mentally and financially to survive the upcoming upheaval. If you really want to proceed, please click on PRESENTATION.
The End Game
Since 2008, the general belief is that Bernanke and Fed saved America
and the world from the abyss through the outpouring of trillions of dollars
into the financial system. Of course,
all that liquidity ended up on Wall Street but not Main Street. Yes, financial assets are up from March 2009;
but your purchasing power has eroded big time.
Employment hasn't recovered. May’s
NFP added just 69,000 jobs on expectations of 150,000, which is a major
miss. (Good job pundits.) See, all that liquidity added to the economy
was simply adding more debt to the economy.
Yes, I expect with today’s NFP numbers and with the world markets
collapsing (German Dax is now down over 4%.) that the way is now clear for
Bernanke to institute another round of QE, which we should all know by now will
also fail!
Of course, no one knows exactly what is on the economic/financial
horizon; but I still maintain that during the next four to five years we will
experience a social/economic meltdown of mega proportions, such as the
following:
- Unemployment rate of 35% to 50%, which if you look at the unemployment rate for teens in some of our states, we are already at those levels.
- Majority of banks will fail, just not in the United States but worldwide. (Just look at Europe and some of the bank runs already occurring there.)
- Governments will default on most of its commitments, just not its sovereign debt. (Just look at Greece, Spain, and Italy. And, yes, I believe it will happen here.)
- We will experience major social unrest throughout the world. (I believe that is already occurring, Europe.)
- We will experience a radical political change not only in this country but also Europe. (I don’t believe that it will make any difference what happens in November. Who ever the President is, will probably end up being the most despised President to ever serve in that office.)
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