SLV: Neither Bear nor Bull!

I know that a lot of you that follow my blog are very interested in the precious metals.  That is why from time to time I have updates pertaining to GLD, SLV, and GDX.  Today, I want to illustrate a "Point and Figure Chart of SLV, which is as follows:

From a technical analysis perspective, these are my findings for SLV, which are based on the above chart:

1. Bullish uptrend since November 2008 (Green Line)
2. Cyclical Position for SLV: Late Advancing Phase/Early Distribution Phase
3. Major support at $17, which also corresponds to its 200-day EMA at $16.91
4. Price break of $17 would be the start of the Declining Phase.
5. Price break of $17 would give a downside price objective between $12 to $14.  $14 is the February 2010 low.

Bottom Line: $17 is definitely the critical support for SLV.  A break below $17 would probably precipitate a decline of 23%.  If it breaks $17, I would definitely hold off buying until I see what happens around $14.