In making any kind of forecast is definitely a risky business, but to forecast the 2012 Presidential election is insane. However, I feel that I maybe on to something, insane or not. Now, if the stock market is higher in 2012, President Obama is more than likely to win. (So far, Bennie has been Obama's best friend, and I would expect Bennie to do whatever he can to make Obama the winner.) If the market is declining in 2012, he will lose by a significant margin.
The strategy that I will be using is simply my S&P 500 EMA Strategy of the 15-week EMA to 40-week EMA. If the 15-week EMA is above the 40-week EMA, Obama wins. On the other hand, if the 15-EMA is less than the 40-week EMA, he loses. Currently, President Obama wins, because the 15-week EMA > 40-week EMA. However, the key is what will the EMA strategy be saying in 2012. Stay tuned.
Further, it is interesting to note that in 2012 major stock market cycles turn decisively lower, which should be confirmed if the the 15-week EMA is lower than the 40-week EMA. What does this mean? A powerful bear market should ensue that takes all major stock market indexes to lows below March 2009. In other words, whomever is elected under this scenario will end up being one of the most despised Presidents ever and lose in a landslide in 2016.
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