The title of this post not only "cuts-to-the chase" but is extremely profound in an era of complexity and governmental spin on monthly employment numbers. Ok, let's "cut-to-the-chase." I simply want to calculate and know what the monthly employment participation rate is, because this rate determines who pays taxes. Therefore, in analyzing employment numbers for fiscal sustainability (government revenues), I only look at the "Employment to Population Ratio (Household Data Table A-1--Not Seasonally Adjusted Figures)," which is reported monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). (Why use the "not-seasonally adjusted" data? The reason is that I want the true numbers, not those seasonally adjusted numbers that have to be adjusted and revised every month.)
From its latest release, dated February 3, 2012, total civilian population and total employed for January 2012 was 242.269 million and 139.944 million, respectively, or a ratio of 57.8% (139.944 million/242.269 million). Keep-in-mind that these are the individuals that pay taxes! Let's see where we were one year ago. For January 2011, total civilian population and total employed were 238.704 million and 137.599 million, respectively, or a ratio of 57.6%. In other words, the participation ratio is about the same year over year; and there has been no significant improvement in this ratio since it bottomed in 2009. But, we do know that government spending and deficits continue unabated; however, those actually paying taxes have not for all practically increased. That is definitely not good for sustainability on the fiscal side.
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