You've Lost That Loving Feeling

Back on September 13, 2012, my post, which was entitled, "And the Winner of the 2012 Presidential Election Is?" made the following statement: (Pay close attention to the last sentence.)

"Underlying social mood as manifested in the stock market remains positive going into the November election.  Therefore, the probability of President Obama being re-elected is high!  So, how can one use the above information against the backdrop that the next four years will usher in the largest economic/financial disaster known to man with the DJIA selling for 1,000?  (Yes, the coming economic downturn will be greater than the Great Depression of the 1930s.)  Given the scenario, I don’t consider who ever occupies the White House will win any popular contests.  Remember that over the next four years the expected social mood of this country will change from positive to very “bleak.”  Therefore, the man that occupies the Presidency will undoubtedly be highly despised."

Here we are eight months into President Obama's second term, and his popularity has drastically shifted against him.  CNN reports that for the first time in his presidency, half of the public doesn't think that Barack Obama is honest and trustworthy.  So far into his second term, we have had one scandal after another -- "Associated Press, IRS, Unwarranted Electronic Surveillance of U.S. Citizens, and Benghazi." And, this is after only eight months.  So, the trend change in social mood for President Obama and Wall Street is only going to get much worse.  In regard to Wall Street, the manipulation of financial assets (stocks and bonds) by the Federal Reserve System will end in disaster over the next three years, specially the date to watch is September 13, 2015.  (See my post of November 19, 2012 by clicking here for the reason why September 13, 2015 is significant.)

Forget Gold and Silver, Buy Ammo!

Since May 2012, 22 ammunition is up over 400%. It was approximately $21 to $23 per 500 rounds (full brick) in May 2012, and it is now $100 to $135 for 500 rounds, if you can find it. Over the same time period, gold and silver are down approximately 15% and 27%, respectively.  So what we have in place is a de-facto gun control in the United States.  That is, one can buy all the guns one wants; however, buying the ammo for those guns is another matter! Therefore, if one does not have the ammo for one's gun, what good is it?  

Too Good to be True, But This is True!

The Federal Reserve System and Wall Street, i.e, "Too Big to Fail Financial Institutions," have devised another real estate scam in which you, the American tax payer will be left holding the proverbial bag of toxic paper.  Their scam goes as follows: First, these financial institutions (Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley) buy a house, say for $100,000. Then sell the house to someone who has absolutely no money and only a marginal credit history, taking a loan of $120,000 in return.  In real estate terms, this is called a 120% LTV (loan-to-value).  Second, the Federal Reserve enters the picture to monetize the loan from the above mentioned financial institutions.  The Fed buys $45 billion of such mortgages at face value (LTV) every month.  These financial institutions just sell these mortgages in the example to the Fed for $120,000 and pocket a $20,000 profit, all with no risk.  The victim is the family who is paying interest on a 120% LTV loan on a house that may never be his unless the value appreciates by at least 20%. 

$SLV (Derivative for Silver) Update

Nothing has really changed on my outlook for $SLV.  My downside target is still in the $18 to $20 range.  From my "Stage Analysis Approach," $SLV continues at Stage Four, which is the selling phase, or that phase were supply is greater than demand. 

Institute for the Works of Religion or The Vatican Bank

"God’s new banker brings Teutonic thoroughness to Vatican."  That is a headline in today's (May 31, 2013) Financial Times.  That title sparked by interest.  Why?  Ask a Natsari!

Is Bernanke Out as Chairperson of the Federal Reserve System?

Bernanke's term as a "Board Member" does not end until January 31, 2020.  However, as the chair of the Fed, that ends on January 31, 2014.  Now, the question to ponder is as follows:  Will Obama reappoint Bernanke again?  My response to that question is "no!"  Why?  Under Bernanke, the Fed has injected more than $3 trillion into the financial system since March of 2009.   What has been the results of all this liquidity?  No sustainable economic improvement.  That in itself should be reason enough to not appoint Bernanke.  However, since Obama does ascribe to Bernanke's monetary policies, why the change?  Obama has to blame the failed monetary policies on someone, and that someone is Bernanke. Will such a move to appoint a new Fed Chair make a difference?  Absolutely not, in my humble opinion. 

Who does the smart money say will be appointed as the new "Chair," if Bernanke is not reappointed?  That individual would be Janet L. Yellen, who is the current Vice Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.  Dr. Yellen earned her Ph.D. in Economics from Yale University in 1971.  (In other words, she would be another elitist just like Bernanke with the same failed monetary approach to the economy.  To make matters worst, she is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations.)  Therefore, nothing will change for the better, just a name change at the top.

The Real Truth of the Operational Federal Deficit for 2013

Yesterday's economic comments centered on the approximate ($488) billion in operational deficits from October 1st to April 30th of this year, which is a complete falsehood.  The so-called economic/financial pundits were declaring that this was a major accomplishment for the Obama Administration.  Why?  Because Obama stated during his 2007 campaign that he would reduce the size of the federal deficit by half during his first administration. 

Let's look at the real truth of the size of the federal deficit for the past seven months from the following table:

The above table is taken directly from "Treasury Direct," which was reproduced from the Market Ticker.  The first column is the public debt, the next is Social Security and Medicare, and the third is the total federal debt.  What does it illustrate?  Since September 28, 2012,  there has been a net $762.6 billion of new debt added to the Federal balance sheet, not $488 billion!  And, if one extrapolates the remaining five months for the current fiscal year,  the federal deficit is $1.307 trillion.

Remember the "real truth" always comes out.  

Pet Food Stamps

 Well, what do we have here?  And, no, I am not making this up.  We now have a "Pet Food Stamp" program for low-income families. Wow!  To keep Americans from having to choose between feeding their pets or themselves, dog and cat owners who are currently receiving public assistance can apply for help.  Applicants will need to provide a photocopy of their state identification and the address on the ID must match the address on the public assistance award letter.  Once all that is verified, you then get enrolled to get six months of free home delivery of pet food from petflow.com.   And after six months time if you still need the service, you are able to reapply without a wait for another six months

Taking the Lemmings' Wealth

I am going to be more than happy to acquire the wealth of all those financial lemmings, who have not learned a thing from 2008.  Therefore, I have taken on the following positions: "SPY 70 December 2015 Puts."

The Significance of the Decrease in the "Average Work Week" for April 2013

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that "Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 165,000 in April, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 7.5%."  The BLS also reported the following information on the number of hours worked: "The average workweek for all employees on private no-farm payrolls decreased by 0.2 hour in April to 34.4 hours."  Now, why is the decrease in the number of hours significant?  Thanks to Karl Denninger over at the Market Ticker, he explains the decrease in hours worked this way: " If we look at the "employed" figure of 143,724,000 people, a drop of 0.2 hours is a full-time-equivalent decrease of 1/2% (.2/40 hour work week = .005).  Applied to the employed population, this amounts to an imputed economic decrease of 718,620 jobs (143,724,000 x .005)!" He further mentions that this is a huge problem going forward, because the trend of cutting hours back to get under Obamacare limits (30 hours) is picking up steam and will continue for the rest of 2013 and into 2014.

Nonsexist Alternative Language or Effemination of our Society

This whole "nonsexist alternative language" has me thinking about the "effemination" of our society.  (You may want to research the effects of effemination of males in regard to their traditional roles within society.)

Therefore, in keeping with current nonsexist terms, please refrain from using the following words and substitute the words following the "colon:"

1. Master Bedroom: Please use "Owner's Suite."
2. Freshman: Please use "First-year Student."
3. Chairman of the Board: Please use "Chair of the Board."
4. Mankind: Please use "Humanity."
5. Policeman: Please use "Police Officer."
6. Fireman: Please use "Fire Fighter."
7. Congressman: Please use "Member of Congress."
8. Cleaning Lady: Please use "Cleaner."
9. Fisherman: Please use "Fisherfolk."
10. Man-size Task: Please use "Demanding Task."
11. Master Key: Please use "Master Copy."
12. Railwayman: Please use "Railway Worker. 

Men, I would appreciate your total cooperation in the utilization of the above "nonsexist alternative language" in your daily conversations.  Only you can speed-up the "effemination process" of our gender.

Sallie Mae

As WSJ reports, Sallie Mae (SLM), the nation's largest non-government student lender just cancelled a $225 million debt offering as investors decided they simply were not getting paid enough for risk - amid rising student loan defaults.  This sounds a whole lot like 2007 when the leaks to the sub-prime mortgage bubble were first notices.  And, of course, that did not end well.  Oh, by the way, he total student loans outstanding are in excess of $1 trillion.  Simply look at the following chart, and one might conclude that this is 2007 all over again.  But, this time is going to be worse. 

Record Number of Households on Food Stamps

The latest available data from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) shows that a record number 23 million households in the United States are now on food stamps.  That equates to 1 out of every five (20%) households are on food stamps (EBT Cards).

Elliott Wave Theorist: Lows of Generational Proportions?

Please keep-in-mind that I am simply the messenger of the following forecasts put-forth by Robert Prechter of “The Elliott Wave Theorist." 

The latest edition of  “The Elliott Wave Theorist,” dated April 23, 2013, puts forth the following projections for Gold, Silver, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average between now and 2016:

1. Silver will eventually take out its 1993 low of $3.51/ounce.
2. Gold will fall below $200/ounce.  
3. Equity markets should top out no later than Friday, May 3, for a 90% decline.  From today’s close of 14,719.46 on the DJIA, which would put the average at 1,472. 

What kind of economic scenario would bring about such low price levels for financial assets between now and 2016?  Answer: Deflation/Depression
 

$SLV: How Low Can It Go?

Happy Tax Day!

 In regard to taxes, how many miles constitute the U.S. Tax Code?  Answer: ≈13 miles!  The U.S. Tax Code is 73,954 pages long.  A standard sheet of paper is 8.5 inches in width by 11 inches in length.  If we multiply the length of the paper (11 inches) by 73,954 pages, we get 813,494 inches, which equals 67,791 feet.  A mile is 5,280 feet long.  Divide the 67,791 feet by one mile and you get 12.84 miles of tax code!

Spring Cleaning

I decided to take a couple of days off from posting on my blog in order to do some office cleaning. From the looks of it, I may need more than a couple of days :-(

How Many Working Age Americans do not Have a Job?

The answer is 101,709,000!  Yes, over 101 million working age Americans do not have a job. But, everything is just great in the "World of Oz"  At least, that is what we are being told.  As of July 2012, the population of the United States stood at 313,914,040.  Therefore, in relation to the population, 32.4% of working age Americans do not have employment.  But wait, you say the unemployment rate that was just announced last week was only 7.6%.  In other words, we have a major disconnect?  The Obama Administration is getting unemployment to go down by pretending that millions upon millions of unemployed Americans simply do not want jobs anymore.  We saw this once again in March 2012.  According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), more than 600,000 Americans dropped out of the labor market during that month alone.

I guess is just doesn't pay to work anymore. Various studies support that conclusion.  One study reported that a family of four, collecting all the benefits for which they were entitled, would have to earn $65,000 per year to have the same after-tax purchasing power.   According to Gary Alexander, the Secretary of Public Welfare for the state of Pennsylvania, a "single mom is better off earning gross income of $29,000 with $57,327 in net income & benefits than to earn gross income of $69,000 with net income and benefits of $57,045." If you work, you must be a sucker.

Now, back to the construction of the 101 million working age Americans that do not have jobs.  According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), there are 11,742,000 working age Americans that are officially unemployed.  Plus, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics says that there are 89,967,000 working age Americans that are not in the labor force.  Therefore, the sum of the two equates to 101,709,000 or 32.4% of the population of the United States of American do not have employment. 

Check out the details of the above content at Zero Hedge.

$SLV, Now What?

Let the Truth be Told!

David Blanchflower, a former Bank of England policy maker who now teaches at Dartmouth, said the following: “The reason that stocks have erased all their losses is entirely because of QE (fallacy of so-called free money).  To argue that that’s independent of the actions of the Fed shows no understanding of what the Fed is doing and what they did.”  So, there you have it.  Through the Fed's policy of so-called "free money," not real economic growth or real job growth, you have the explanation on why the market is completely disconnected from economic reality.  As I stated many time previously, the main benefactor has been Wall Street, not Main Street.