Determination of Exchange Rates

The following chart illustrates the "plummeting $."


What is going on with the extreme weakness in the dollar (at a 19-month low)? What is causing the $USD to be so weak? From Chapter 21, which is entitled International Financial Management, we can make an inference as to the recent $USD weakness. Read pages 603-611 that provide insight for each of the following exchange rate determinates of the $USD: Income and taste, Changes in relative interest rates, Changes in relative price levels, Changes in fiscal and monetary policies, Changes in Balance of Payments, and Other Factors such as Oil Prices and SOX or SarbOX Act.

For Tuesday, October 28, be ready to discuss the causes for the $USD weakness.

Yield Curve Says "Probable" 2007 Recession

John Mauldin notes:

"The yield curve became more inverted this week, with the negative differential between the 3-month and the 10-year at -49 basis points and a -76 basis point differential between the 10-year and the Feds fund rate. According to a Fed paper, that level of an inversion suggests there is now an over 40% probability of recession next year. This same model only predicted a 50% chance of recession in 2000, and as the paper authors acknowledge, the model probably understates risk in recent decades."

The yield curve and interest-rate data looks like this, which is from Bloomberg.com:

Source:

Honey, I Created A Bubble
John Mauldin
Investor Insight, November 10, 2006
http://www.frontlinethoughts.com/article.asp?id=mwo111006

Free Cash Flow (FCF)

"Free Cash Flow (FCF)" represents the cash that a firm is able to generate after expending all the money to maintain/expand its assest base. In addition, investors like firms that produce lots of FCF; because it allows a firm to purse investment opportunities that enhance shareholders' wealth.

To calculate FCF, go to a firm's cash flow statement. There you will find the line item entitled "Total Cash Flow From Operating Activities." From this number, subtract the number from 'Capital Expenditure," which is found in the next section of the Cash Flow statement entitled "Investing Activites."

For your firm, calculate the FCF for the past three fiscal/calendar years and trend the data. What is the trend? Keep-in-mind that a negative FCF is not necessary bad. It could be the result of some large capital expenditures, which in itself could prove to be highly profitable.