Republicans Have Won Every November 6th Presidential Election Since 1860

BreitBart reports that the date November 6th has always been a good one for Republicans:

1. 1860 - Abraham Lincoln over Stephen Douglas
2. 1888 - Benjamin Harrison over incumbent Grover Cleveland
3. 1900 - William McKinley over William Jennings Bryan
4. 1928 - Herbert Hoover over Al Smith
5. 1956 - Dwight Eisenhower over Adlai Stevenson
6. 1984 - Ronald Reagan over Walter Mondale.

Will the trend continue?  We will find out in less than one week!

Deflation or Inflation? Make the Call Based on the 10-Year TSY Note

ADP's Adjustment: "Cancels" 365,000 Private Jobs Created in 2012

If I had been paying ADP for this research report on private sector jobs throughout 2012, I would today be on the phone demanding a complete refund for my subscription fee.  Businesses pay good money for this type of research in which they base capital budgeting decisions on going forward.  Bottom line to these ADP's private sector job revisions is that if you thought America created jobs in 2012, it didn't. ADP made that happen through statistics.  I guess the old adage, caveat emptor, is still valid.

New ADP Count Slashes Job Creation for September 2012

"Revisions to the way payroll data firm ADP counts private sector job creation have resulted in a sharp drop in the September employment count.  ADP's new calculations put the monthly job creation at just 88,2000, which is down from the 162,000 the firm originally reported earlier this month."  Wow!  In other words, ADP's private sector job report has been drastically overstated since it stated providing the statistic.  ADP will report on October's private sector job creation tomorrow, which the market already doesn't like wants coming.  Then, on Friday, the Department of Labor will report on the non-farm payroll for October.  The current consensus for the NFP number is approximately +123,000.  However, given the revisions by ADP, my estimate is +85,000 (+/- 30,000).

Hopelessness: Eurozone Crisis

Unemployment in the Eurozone has risen to a new high at 11.6%, with Spain recording the highest jobless rate with more than one in four out of work.  And, it is only going to get worse over the next four years, inclusive of the United States of America.  Sandy was a national disaster in which my prayers and thoughts go out to everyone impacted.  However, the financial disaster coming to America and the Eurozone over the next four years will be the real "perfect storm."  I know, I know that none of this financial stuff matters to anyone until it matters to everyone; and therein lies the problem.

It's Still Obama's Election to Lose

From my post of September 13, 2012, I made the following comments: “The Elliott Wave Theorist has done extensive research on those factors that influence re-election outcomes of presidential races. Its research revealed that the stock market is an “excellent indicator” of re-election outcomes.  In addition, GDP had a moderately positive relationship to re-election results; and inflation and unemployment rates had “no” significant predictive value.  It tested stock-market performance 1, 2, 3, and 4 years prior to elections and found all of them to be significant.  However, the 3-year time horizon leading up to the re-election was the most significant."

 So, where do stand based on the 3-year time horizon?  Given the 3-year time frame, the DJIA has gained approximately 36%.  Even though the economy remains weak, GDP growth between 1% to 2%,  the 3-year positive trend is how people feel, as measured by the performance of the DJIA, continues to give the edge to President Obama in his re-election bid.

Bye, Bye, Miss American Jeep

Jeep, the rugged brand President Obama once said symbolized American freedom, is considering giving up on the United States and shifting production to China.  Such a move to China would crash the Toledo, Ohio economy where Jeeps are made and supplied.

In a Bloomberg interview, Jeep's president said the automaker plans to restore Jeep production in China, suspended in 2009, and is considering making all Jeeps in China. 

Well, it appears that the American taxpayer, who bailed-out Chrysler and Jeeep, is once again being fleeced.  And, then again, something things never change.

One Reason Why I am Still in the Deflationist Camp

Would anyone in their right mind purchase a 30-year TSY security to earn 2.93% if one believes in the current inflationary aphorism?  In other words, the above chart depicts one reason why I am still in the deflationist camp.  Since 2009, the Fed's balance sheet has increased reserves (liquidity) to the banking system by close to $3 trillion. if you take into account QE1, QE2, Operation Twist, and QE Eternity. In spite of this excessive injection of liquidity into the economy, long rates have plummeted, which is indicative of a deflationary environment.    

Welcome First-year Student!

The University of North Carolina has removed the word “freshman” from official university documents, citing as their reason an attempt to adopt more “gender inclusive language.”  In its place, gender inclusive terms (first year student and upper-level student) will be used on University Documents, Policies, and Websites.   Oh, boy person!  No, from my perspective, a student who has under thirty credit hours will still be called a "Freshmen."  Sorry, University of North Carolina, but I believe you have gone overboard on this one. 

40% of Americans Have $500 or Less In Saving

Staggering statistic, isn't it?  According to survey done by "Credit Donkey," not all respondents were poor.  Some of those individuals had big houses, big mortgages, or 401(k)s but still no more than five hundred dollars to rub together right now.  In addition, the survey found that 54% of respondents don’t have a savings plan in place, and 45% are afraid they’ll never be able to save.  

I am definitely appalled at those 40% of Americans who never developed the financial life skills to have $500 in an emergency fund.  Every student in high school and college should be required to take a "Personal Finance" course to develop a financial life skill of how to save for that proverbial rainy day.  But, then again, the way our educational system is today that might be asking for too much!

Green Energy Failures

The failures (bankruptcies) keep mounting for the "Green Movement."  So far, eighteen companies that received $3.3 billion taxpayer dollars have failed.  Another 12 green companies, who have received $6 billion of your tax dollars, are on the verge of bankruptcy.  Therefore, we, as American taxpayers, can kiss $9.3 billion goodbye.  One thing that this administration has done extremely well is to pick the "losers" at your expense.  And, once again, it is not the role of government to try to pick "winners or losers."  That is the function for a market economy! 

Patient Bear

Every bear has its time.  This "bear" is getting really hungry, since I have not eaten in three years and counting.

Rules of Engagement (ROE), or the Reason Why We Don't Win Wars

" On August 6, 2011, while on their way to assist an ongoing mission in Wardak Province, Afghanistan, the CH-47D Chinook helicopter that they were riding in was shot down by an RPG fired by a Taliban fire team approaching their landing zone in Tangi Valley. All 38 American and Afghan service members who were aboard perished, including 17 Navy SEALS, 5 Navy Special Operations support personnel, 3 Air Force Special Tactics Airmen and the five-man Chinook crew, marking the largest loss of life in America’s 11 years of military operations in Afghanistan. Twenty of the twenty-two SEALs and SEAL support were from SEAL Team VI (DEVGRU).

The parents of one of the SEALs killed in the Chinook attack, Special Operations Chief Aaron Vaughn, are raising questions about how the Obama administration has pushed the limits of the military’s Special Operations Forces as part of its war policy (e.g. the Feb. 20th Newsweek story, “Obama’s Secret Army”), and how constrictive “rules of engagement” intended to win the “hearts and minds” of the Afghan people directly contributed to the deaths of all those aboard the helicopter."


Specifically, the allegation in this case is that the shooter with an rocket-propelled grenade (RPG) was seen before he fired, permission to take him out was requested but denied, he fired and missed, and permission was still denied to shoot back until after he had fired a second time and struck the chopper, killing all those on board.

Ok, enough is enough.  If our "rules of engagement" are resulting in American lives being lost, it is time to bring our solders home immediately; or change the way we fight the enemy, so we limit the lost of our American solders.  I don't believe that is asking too much of our Commander in Chief.

Electric Car Battery Maker "A123 Systems" Files Bankruptcy

A123, which received a $249.1 million federal grant in 2009 to build a U.S. factory, needed a financial lifeline after struggling with costs from a recall of batteries supplied to Fisker Automotive, which is the auto maker along with the Chevy Volt whose batteries catch on fire and explode.

In September 2010, President Barack Obama called "A123" Chief Executive Officer David Vieau and then-Michigan Governor Jennifer Granholm during an event celebrating the opening of the plant in Livonia, Michigan, which the company received the U.S. grant to help build.  In that telephone conversation, according to a transcript provided by the White House, he said, “This is about the birth of an entire new industry in America -- an industry that’s going to be central to the next generation of cars.  When folks lift up their hoods on the cars of the future, I want them to see engines and batteries that are stamped: Made in America.” 

Well, what I can say, except that the government continues its excellent track record at picking losers.  Then again, it's only taxpayers money.  Therefore, another $249 million down the proverbial rat hole.

Hard to Make a Living in This Employment Environment!

No Correction Needed

In yesterday's post entitled, "Get of the Market," some thought that my downside price objective of 1,000 by 2016 was a misprint because I left off a "zero."  No, I did not forget a "zero."  My downside is not 10,000 but 1,000. 

The Nightmare of Our Current Educational System in America

According to the OECD's Program for International Student Assessment (PISA), based on comparisons with 30 nations around the world, 15-year-old American students are in the bottom half of reading literacy, the bottom third of scientific literacy, and the bottom fifth of mathematics and problem-solving literacy.

As an educator, I am appalled at the aforementioned statistics and what has happen within our educational system.  We, as Americans, have spent billions of dollars on efforts such as No Child Left Behind and Race to the Top, which have proven to be anything but successful.  We have experienced several decades of virtually no improvement or decline in student performance as measured by SAT scores.  The U.S. Department of Education has focused on the "inputs" of  education, such as better schools, better curriculum, and better teachers.  Overall, this focus on educational inputs have not accomplished the goal of raising student achievement, or providing them with the necessary skill-sets to compete in a global economy. 

What needs to been done to reform our educational system?  We need to change our focus from educational inputs to educational outcomes.  That is, student success.  No, I am not recommending that we adopt programs that ensure our students have a high self-esteem of themselves and everyone is given an "A."  No, we need to teach our students the specific study skills that they will need to succeed in life.  In other words, let's get back to teaching the basics, reading, writing, and arithmetic. 

Source: "Greatest Challenge Facing the United States in the Future"

Get Out of the Market

Yes, IMHO!  However, you have to make your own investment decision. But, keep-in-mind the 7 1/2 year cycle is pointing "hard" down starting in the fourth quarter through 2016.  Downside objective is "1,000" on the DJIA ($INDU), which is the price objective based on a massive "Head and Shoulder Top" formation from 1998.

One-Third of Adults Under 30 Have no Religious Affiliation

The number of Americans who do not identify with any religion continues to grow at a fast pace. One-fifth of the U.S. public – and a third of adults under 30 – are religiously unaffiliated today, the highest percentages ever in Pew Research Center polling.  Further, the study states, "This large and growing group of Americans is less religious than the public at large on many conventional measures, including frequency of attendance at religious services and the degree of importance they attach to religion in their lives."  What is this study really indicating?  Simple, we, as a nation, are becoming a nation of "non-belief."  We are substituting the belief of is taught in the "Scriptures" for "Humanism," which generally places more importance on rational thought of man than on faith of Elohim (God).  Paul warned of the consequences of such non-belief in his writings to the Thessalonians, especially in 2 Thessalonians 2:11 that states, "And for this reason Elohim (God) sends on them a deluding influence so that they will believe what is false."  (I don't believe an interpretation is needed for this verse.)  You may just want to read the entire chapter of 2 Thessalonians 2.  Next, read what Yahusha (Jesus) stated in Matthew 13:24-30; and finally, read Matthew 24:29-31.  Why am I writing about this subject?  Answer: Eschaton.

Reason for Today's Unemployment Rate Decline from 8.1% to 7.8%

The reason is simply that the number of "PART-TIME" people employed for economic reasons (That is, can not find a full-time job.) increased by 582,000, which represents about two-thirds of the increase in employment for September.  This increase in part-time employment is the most since October 2011, and the largest one month jump since February 2009.  Wow!  You know those jobs that pay minimum wage with no benefits, such as health and retirement.  But, in this election year cycle, a job is a job to those politicians.  Oh, speaking of politicians, do you know what the unemployment rate is for government workers?  Would you believe 4.3%?  So, the next unemployment report for October 2012 will be given just prior to the November election.  Now, my guess is that we will see further improvement, of course manipulated by the BLS, in the unemployment rate for October 2012.  Maybe, just maybe the BLS can get that rate under 7%.  I know the BLS will definitely give it its best to do so.

Unemployment Rate at 7.8%!

What a complete farce by the Bureau of Lies and Scams (BLS).  Does anyone really believe these numbers are valid?  I will have more later on this unbelievable farce put forth by the BLS.  But, in the meantime, look at the following chart on the "Employment Participation Rate," and you tell me if you are confident .  Now, why is this chart so relevant?  First, the "Participation Rate" indicates the ratio of people actually employed to the civilian labor force.  Second, if you don't have a job, you don't have income to spend; and, of course, you don't pay taxes into the government coffers.  Third, the participation rate for September 2012 stood at 63.6%, which was lower than a year ago when the ratio was 64.2%. 

Uncle Sam's FICO Score

If the U.S. Government were applying for a loan, what would its credit score be?  ConvergEx's Nick Colas estimates it at 655, which is not too bad or too good.  By the way, the average person’s credit score is 655 to 690, according to Credit Karma.  Therefore, our government has a score that is better than 42% of Americans if we assume a normal distribution to all those credit scores.  (See the following Bar Chart.)  Unfortunately, the average credit score you will need to get a mortgage is between 764 or 770 if you want to refinance, which of course leaves the U.S. Government out from refinancing the "White House."  However, all is not lost, because Uncle Sam still qualifies to buy that new GM car, or better yet, buy the Volt and get the $7,500 tax credit.  Go for it, Uncle Sam!

Channel Stuffing Continues at Government Motors (GM)

GM month-end dealer inventory for September 2012 came in at 689,334 vehicles, which is up from September 2011 figure of 558,157.  Expect this number to increase as head into the winter months.

GM has to inflate those sales somehow, and it might as well be at the expense of its dealers.  For those of you that have forgotten what is "channel stuffing," it simply means that GM records a "sale of a vehicle" when it leaves the factory but not yet sold.  In other words, GM dealers take these unsold vehicles into inventory at a cost to their bottom line.