Thursday, May 03, 2007

Halloween Indicator Performance Record Since 1950

Thanks to the "Contrary Investor" for the following chart on the Halloween performance over the past 56 years. Wow!

With the raw data, I calculated the mean return, standard deviation, and the coefficient of variation. The results are as follows: May/October had a mean return of 1.52%, standard deviation of 8.55%, and a coefficient of variation of 5.64. November/April had a mean return of 7.30%, standard deviation of 10.08%, and a coefficient of variation of 1.38. Finally, a Buy/Hold strategy had a mean return of 0.74%, standard deviation of 4.07%, and a coefficient of 5.53.

Any questions about the power of seasonality within the stock market? I didn't think so. Another way of looking at the above performance is as follows: "
One dollar invested in 1950 using only November through April investment periods each year has grown to just shy of $43 today. Alternatively, one dollar invested only in the May through October periods since 1950 is today worth less than $2."