$GLD (Gold): When Will the Decline End?

Parabolic Rise in the $INDU

You Think Now is a Good Time to Buy That House Because Mortgage Rates are so Low -- Well, You May Want to Think That Premise Over Again!

Ok, let's just look at mortgage rates and analyze what is happening.  Thirty-year rates are currently 3.75% on a national basis, which is still low by historical standards.  (See the following chart on 30-year mortgage rates.)  Now, let's look at a conventional $200,000 loan for 30 years at 3.75%.  This produces a P&I of $926.  How much house does $926 buy if rates go up to 6.36%, which was the 30-year rate as of October 2006?  [Why am I asking how much home does $936 buy?  Well, usually when individuals buy a home, they are concerned about what the monthly payment is going to be.]  Ok, the answer is $150,268.  So, you think housing has "bottomed?  Not so fast.  See, you have an imputed approximately 33% valuation increase in the price of houses today that will, over time, decline when rates rise.  In other words, just like bonds, when interest rates rise, prices decline. Therefore, the time to buy that house is when rates are historically high, not low, because then when rates go down you get the imputed price increase.  (This is your financial tip for the week.)

$SLV's Triple-Bottom Bearish Formation: Price Objective at $12.50

We have not seen $SLV at these price levels since March 2010!  The last time $SLV was at $12.50 was July 2009.  The $12.50 is based solely on the price objective of the "Spread-Triple Bearish Formation."  (See the "Green Circle.") 

Walmart Care Clinics

 

Now, this is true affordable health care, which I like a lot.  "An office visit costs $40, which Walmart

says is about half the industry standard and just $4 for Walmart employees and family members with the company’s insurance.  A pregnancy test will cost just $3, and a cholesterol test is $8.  Walmart Care Clinic will also treat chronic conditions such as diabetes."

What say, you, health-care providers?  Are you going to match these Walmart prices?  I doubt it.

Employment Has Never Been Better!

Say what! Well, according to the BLS, initial jobless claims just collapsed to the lows of April 2000. Therefore, employment has never been better. Right! Now, for the truth, which is right before your eyes in the following chart:

Point & Figure Chart of $IWM: Is $90 Realistic?

$INDU: Extremely Oversold

Civil Forfeiture/Civil Asset Forfeiture

This is how police justify stealing American citizens’ money.  And, yes, American citizen, this is legal and for real!  Therefore, never carry a lot of cash in your car.

After reviewing the above video, go to Michael Krieger's article entitled, "Common People Do Not Carry This Much U.S. Currency." 

Is IWM Signaling a Start to the Next Bear Market?

Four Seasons of the Kondratieff Wave

Kondratieff Wave is a fifty year cycle that turned into its Winter phase, or Stage Four, occurred in 2000, which is precisely at the bursting of the tech bubble.  So what can we expect going forward, since we still have another 36 years of this Winter Wave?  See the following chart.

China Overtakes U.S.A.

It should come as no shock that China has usurped the United States with the world's largest GDP. Sad, but true!  By the end of 2014, according to the International Monetary Fund, China will make up 16.48% of the world's purchasing-power adjusted GDP (or $17.632 trillion), and the US will make up 16.28% (or $17.416 trillion).

I wonder if you will hear this on your nightly news tonight.  No, because the preponderance of Americans are still living in yesterday's world.

What the Main Street Media Will Not Be Telling You About the Latest Employment Numbers

Great news on the employment front, especially if you are between 55 and 69. This group comprised the vast majority of the job additions for September 2014, 230,000. What about the prime worker group, which would be those aged 25-54?  They lost 10,000 jobs.  What?  Say, it is not true. Those grandparents are not being hired in those positions within the economy to make the so-called "big bucks." We are talking here the Wal-Mart greeters of the world. But, the media is claiming a major victory for the economy. Give me a break!  





By the way, here is the breakdown of job gains by all age groups since the start of the depression in December 2007: 5.5 million jobs "gained" in the 55-69 age group.  Not bad.  What about those prime workers between the age of 25-54? Negative 2.04 million.  Not so good!

Source: Zero Hedge

$SLV's 15/40-week EMAs

$IWM's EMAs

$SLV Has No Friends -- That's the Good News! Bad News, Still in Stage Four Bear

Bulls: Take Heed of the Following Chart!

iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWF): Trend Change Ahead?

The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of small-capitalization U.S. equities. Small-cap equities portend the direction of the market indexes in general, such as the DJIA and S&P 500.

The following chart of the IWM illustrates its 15-week EMA in relation to its 40-week EMA. If you are a long-term reader of my blog, you know the significance of this exponential moving average strategy (EMA).  For those of you that are new, the EMA strategy is as follows: (1) 15-week EMA > 40-week EMA -- market trend is up (Bullish), and (2) 15-week EMA < 40-week EMA -- market trend is down (Bearish).

As you can see from the following IWM chart, the 15-week EMA exceeds the 40-week EMA. Therefore, yes, the bullish trend is still in place. However, both the 15-week EMA and 40-week EMA appear to be rolling over (flattening out), which could be a precursor of a change in trend from bullish to bearish. I will continue to monitor this ETF very closely.

$SLV: Relief Rally?

$SLV at a Four Year Low! What's Next?