Bear Continues: 15-Week EMA Still Below the 40-Week EMA

An update of the 15- and 40-Week EMAs is illustrated in the following chart. Keep-in-mind that as long as the 15-Week EMA is below the 40-Week EMA, a bear market remains in tact. However, I want to draw you attention to the two boxes in blue. The first box depicts the 2002-03 price activity prior to the start of the bull market that culminated in late 2007, and the second depicts the recent price activity. The recent price activity is similar in many aspects to the 2002-03 period. Am I saying that we are on the brink of the start of a new bull market? No, I will let the EMAs tell me when that will occur. However, the 800 level on the S&P 500 must hold. If not, we could see a major sell off that would probability take it to 600.