Retail Sales Post Broad Increase?

The "Wall Street Journal" reports in its headline that U.S. retail sales rose 1.3% in November, making a broad-based increase that suggested consumers were buying aggressively and supporting the economy. Wow! This is great news. But once again, is it completely factual? Actual Point-of-Sale (POS) data says otherwise, at least with regard to Black Friday. See the following table.

Note: To enlarge the chart, double-click inside of it.

Also, the U.S Census Bureau states that these advance retail numbers are the first estimates from a new sample. The Census Bureau goes on to say that the new sample for the "Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey" is selected about once every two and a half years. (Isn't it interesting that the government decided to change the sampling methodology right now during the critical Christmas buying period. Anyone for cooking the books? Therefore, any type of comparison to previous data is completely suspect and wrong, because we are not comparing "apples-to-apples."

To say the least, I am suspect of those advanced numbers, which will undoubtedly be adjusted downward, especially when you look at the point-of-sale data for electronics during Black Friday. Like I have been saying for months that the spin being put out there is all about instilling confidence in the consumer. As always, check out the facts.