Thursday, May 19, 2011

Follow-up on the Next QE

As indicated in my post of Tuesday, May 17, I firmly believe some form of additional quantitative easing is right around the quarter.  The only question is by how much?  I believe I have found the rationale that the Fed will use; and that is Japan.  The balance sheet of the Bank of Japan equals about 30% of Japanese GDP.  If the Fed would likewise, it could conduct an additional $1.8 trillion worth of quantitative easing.  Why?  There has been no economic recovery.  There has been no improvement in the unemployment rate.  Today, the Philly Fed, which was expected to rise from the April number of 18.5 to 20, instead collapsed to 3.9! This compares to the March level of over 43.  In other words, we have a foreshadowing of an economic depression.

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