Monday, September 26, 2011

Risk Aversion Measurement Ratio

A good overall measure of the perceived risk by market participants is the "Fidelity Capital & Income Fund to Vanguard Long Term Treasury Fund Ratio."  Readings above 80 indicate that investors perceive risk to be low.  Readings below 50 indicate that investors perceive risk to be great.  How does one use this indicator?  Use it as a contrary indicator!  That is, not as a market timing tool, but as a measure of how investors are viewing risk.  If it is above 80, investors do not perceive that stocks are risky.  Below 50, investors perceive that stocks are very risky.  In other words, if too many investors think that the market is not risky, it probably is.  And, of course, if too many investors think that the market is too risky, it probably is not.


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