And, the 2012 Presidential Winner is ….

President Obama!  Why?  Well, back on June 15, 2011, I posted the following message under the title, “First Presidential Forecast,”

"In making any kind of forecast is definitely a risky business, but to forecast the 2012 Presidential election is insane.  However, I feel that I maybe on to something, insane or not.  Now, if the stock market is higher in 2012, President Obama is more than likely to win.  (So far, Bennie has been Obama's best friend, and I would expect Bennie to do whatever he can to make Obama the winner.)  If the market is declining in 2012, he will lose by a significant margin. 

The strategy that I will be using is simply my S&P 500 EMA Strategy of the 15-week EMA to 40-week EMA.  If the 15-week EMA is above the 40-week EMA, Obama wins.  On the other hand, if the 15-EMA is less than the 40-week EMA, he loses.  Currently, President Obama wins, because the 15-week EMA > 40-week EMA.  However, the key is what will the EMA strategy be saying in 2012.

Further, it is interesting to note that in 2012 major stock market cycles turn decisively lower, which should be confirmed if the 15-week EMA is lower than the 40-week EMA.  What does this mean?  A powerful bear market should ensue that takes all major stock market indexes to lows below March 2009.  In other words, whoever is elected under this scenario will end up being one of the most despised Presidents ever and lose in a landslide in 2016.  Stay toned."

Since then, an interesting study that reinforces by aforementioned hypothesis, entitled “Social Mood, Stock Market Performance and U.S. Presidential Elections: A Socionomic Perspective on Voting Results” by Robert Prechter, Deepak Goel, Wayne Parker, and Matthew Lampert, contends that citizens vote in accordance with trends in social mood, and that stock market indexes appear to be the best available indicator to measure social mood.  According to the study, voters really don’t care about jobs numbers, GDP growth, European debt crisis, and the decline in home prices.  Instead, they respond to fluctuations in the stock market.  That is, the value of their stock portfolios and 401K plans.  Therefore, if the Republicans want to capture the White House in November, they better hope that the S&P 500 crashes!