From my post of September 13, 2012, I made the following comments: “The Elliott Wave
Theorist has done extensive research on
those factors that influence re-election outcomes of presidential races. Its research revealed that the stock market is an
“excellent indicator” of re-election outcomes.
In addition, GDP had a moderately positive relationship to re-election
results; and inflation and unemployment rates had “no” significant predictive
value. It tested stock-market
performance 1, 2, 3, and 4 years prior to elections and found all of them to be
significant. However, the 3-year time
horizon leading up to the re-election was the most significant."
So, where do stand based on the 3-year time
horizon? Given the 3-year time frame,
the DJIA has gained approximately 36%. Even though the economy remains weak, GDP growth between 1% to 2%, the
3-year positive trend is how people feel, as measured by the performance of the
DJIA, continues to give the edge to President Obama in his re-election bid.
No comments:
Post a Comment