Friday, March 08, 2013

BLS Reports That Payrolls Surge by 236,000 in February

Big surge in "seasonally adjusted" employment numbers on expectations of 150,000. The optimal phrase in the former sentence being seasonally adjusted employment numbers.  You know those so-called statistical jobs that will be revised downward within the next two months.  Oh, that infamous "birth-death phantom jobs" statistic added 102,000 to the unadjusted job number.  So, if we subtract the statistical, phantom jobs of 102,000 from 236,000, you arrive at 134,000 jobs, which is really less than the expectations of 150,000.  (That is the main reason why I like to use in my analysis "year over year" data that eliminates any need for seasonal adjustments.)  In other words, we, as a nation, still need approximately 200,000 new jobs each month just to absorb those new entrants into the job market every month.  And, one more statistic from the BLS is that the unemployment rate went from 7.9% to 7.7%.  For some reason I just don't buy into what the BLS reports.  However, you can read the full report and judge for yourself by clicking on BLS.

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