Tuesday, November 26, 2013

Are Long-Term Gasoline Prices Heading Up or Down?

 
I would not be concerned about the recent 5% jump in prices.  Yes, no one wants to pay higher prices at the pump.  However, I would be more interested in looking at the price action over the past three years, and see if one can ascertain about prices going forward.  That is, look at the above chart and notice the "Lower Price Tops" going back to 2011.  This type of "chart pattern" is referred to as a "descending-horizontal triangle," which bearish (good for consumer) for gasoline prices.  Currently, support for gasoline at the pump is approximately $3.15 on average throughout the U.S., or approximately $2.40 for the wholesale gasoline futures.  If the support at $3.15 is taken out, that would usher in weaker prices at the pump, which is exactly what I expect to happen.  Why?  Because we are in a "deflationary environment," and it is going to get a whole lot worse.  In other words, forget about inflation for the time being, worry about "DEFLATION" on all asset prices!


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