Thursday, January 16, 2014

Who Owns Our U.S. Treasury Securities?


China's holdings of U.S. Treasury securities rose to a record $1.317 trillion!  That is what the media has been reporting today, which, of course, is true.  No where did I hear any reporting by the main-stream media that the Fed holds $2.164 trillion of U.S. Treasury securities.  And, exactly how did the Fed come up with the $2.164 trillion to purchase those Treasury securities?  Oh, they simply created those trillions of dollars out of thin air to make those purchases.  Boy, do I like that business model!

Wednesday, January 15, 2014

2014 Economic Freedom Index

The level of economic freedom in the U.S. is at an all-time low.  According to the Heritage Foundation, the U.S. is ranked "12th."  Last year, the U.S. was ranked "10th."  We have dropped for seven years in a row with this year moving out of the top ten.

According to an article in the Wall Street Journal by Terry Miller in which he states the following: "For 20 years, this index has measured a nation's commitment to free enterprise on a scale of 0 to 100 by evaluating 10 categories, including fiscal soundness, government size and property rights.  These commitments have powerful effects: Countries achieving higher levels of economic freedom consistently and measurably outperform others in economic growth, long-term prosperity and social progress.  Those losing freedom, on the other hand, risk economic stagnation, high unemployment and deteriorating social conditions."

I have to admit that it does appear that the glory days of the U.S. are behind us if we continue on our current economic course of limiting economic freedom.

Monday, January 13, 2014

1929 Analog to Current $DJIA


Interesting analog!  But, in order to confirm the 1929 analog, the $DJIA's 15-week EMA must decline below its 40-week EMA, which, of course, we are not there yet!  For a bear, let's hope that this analog does unfold according to script. 

Saturday, January 11, 2014

Civilian Labor Force "Participation Rate"


The "participation rate" refers to the number of people who are either employed or actively looking for work in relation to the civilian non-institution population of at least 16 years old.  Another measure that I use to measure overall employment strength is the "Civilian Employment Rate."  The civilian employment rate is similar to the participation rate with the exception that it excludes those individuals actively looking for employment.  In other words, the civilian employment rate only includes those individuals that do, indeed, have a job.  It current rate is at 58.6%.  The reason that I like the civilian employment rate over the participation rate series is due to the fact that it only includes those individuals that have a job, which, of course, are those individuals that pay "taxes" to support everyone that does not have a job! 

Wednesday, January 08, 2014

Your State is Shamed at What?

For my state, Missouri, it is "bankruptcy!  What about your state?  See the following chart.


Saturday, January 04, 2014

Did You Know That the Federal Reserve System Has its Own Police Force?


I thought that I had a good grasp and understanding of the workings of the Federal Reserve System.  However, I did not realize that the Fed has its "own" police department.  And, it is going on a major hiring binge.  Currently, the Fed has approximately 1,000 police officers.  I wonder why?  Could it be that the Fed is preparing for the next financial meltdown over the next two years?

Friday, January 03, 2014

2013 Financial Markets: Performance Update


Investment performances of various financial assets for 2013 were as follows:
  1. The DJIA was up 27%.  (Best single year since 1995.)
  2. The yield on the 10-year Treasury Note was up 78% as the price fell.  Since the low in July 2012 at 1.38%, the 10-year Treasury Note rate has advanced to 3%.  (Is the bond market telling us something about risk assets going forward, which, of course, would be highly negative for the equity markets.)
  3. Silver prices were down 35% and 61% since its 2011 peak. (I am still anticipating a counter-trend rally within its Stage 4 Selling Phase, which could send silver to $22.)
  4. Gold prices were down 28%.  (Similar to silver, I am anticipating a counter-trend rally within its Stage 4 Selling Phase, which could send gold to approximately $1,300.)

The Art of Channel Stuffing

How does GM increase the proverbial bottom-line?  Channel Stuffing!  Please explain.  Channel Stuffing is when a vehicle rolls off the assembly line and heads to your local GM dealership.  GM instantly records that car as a "sale," when, in fact, it simply ends up sitting in the dealer's lot.  (See the following chart.)  By the way, the December GM dealer inventory (channel stuffing) for the month of December was the largest in the company's restructured history.  But you say, those GM cars will be sold because of our solid economy.  In addition, all those people getting jobs will need cars to get them to work.  My only comment to such idiotic rhetoric is that economic stupidity still reins supreme in America.


Thursday, January 02, 2014

Be Careful When You Buy Donkey Meat From Wal-Mart


Purchasers of "Donkey" meat at Wal-Mart stores in China have warned that donkey products maybe tainted with fox meat.  Wal-Mart has recalled "Five Spice" donkey meat sold at some outlets in China after tests showed the product contained the DNA of fox meat.  Wal-Mart said it had set up an investigation team to look into the incident.  I don't know what the problem is, because I thought fox meat was more expensive than donkey meat.

Thursday, December 26, 2013

The Rich Get Richer and the Poor Get Poorer

Currently, we not only have Wall Street taking advantage of Main Street, but now have Washington, D.C. getting richer while most of the country subsidies those federal workers living there.  Case in point, the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis reports that the median annual income of Washington, D.C. is more than $65,000 while the national median income is approximately $50,000. 

I have a recommendation for the current administration, who seem to be so concerned with income inequality.  Thin the ranks of the federal workers in Washington, D.C., which would go a long way to eliminate income inequality.

Tuesday, December 24, 2013

No Bubble Here, Right?

New home prices have never been more unaffordable at a stunning 6.7x average salary.  Thank you, Mr. Bernanke.  You learned your lessons very well from Greenspan where new home prices were only 6x average salary under his Fed tenure.  And, mortgage rates are only 50% of what they were when Greenspan left his post as Fed Chairman.  But, no bubble is visible, right?


What is the $DJIA's Relative Strength Saying About its Future Price Direction?

The rising RSI has penetrated its rising trend line that has been in force since 2009.  What is the proverbial bottom-line?  If past trends hold, $DJIA might be heading to 5,800, or decline of at least 64% from its current levels.  (See the following chart.)


Thursday, December 19, 2013

$SLV's "Unthinkable" Downside Price Objective


Psychological 3% Rate on 10-year TSY Note

Interest rates are heading higher.  No, rates have been rising since August of 2012.  However, the psychological 3% rate on the 10-year Treasury Note is what everyone is focusing on today.  Currently, the rate is at 2.93%.  However, from following chart, one can discern that the 10-year rate reached its low last August.  So, what can an investor expect going forward?  Rates on all kinds of borrowings will go up, such as car loans, credit cards, home loans.  Also, once that 3%  psychological level is penetrated, I expect stocks to suffer big time.

 

You are Kidding, Right?


Would you buy health insurance because of this ad with a guy in pajamas talking about insurance?  I don't think so!  But, our government must think so because you, taxpayer, have been footing the bills for such ads.  (I would say that this ad begs the following question: "Should the federal government be spending $684 million on marketing ads for Obamacare?")  

Now, if you believe that health insurance should be the main holiday topic this year, you can go to the following site, Health Care for the Holidays, for step-by-step instructions.  As a matter of fact, the site puts forth "four steps" on how to have a holiday health care conversation.  (No, I am not kidding. This is an actual site with four specific steps for your holiday conversation.)


Wednesday, December 18, 2013

Percentage of Subprime Auto Loans -- Unbelievable





I am always amazed at how little we learn from history, especially history just five years old. Today, nonprime, subprime, and deep subprime new auto loans make-up 26% (2013 Third Quarter) of all new vehicle financing, which, of course, is one out every 3.85 loans are highly risky.  (Subprime lending includes borrowers with credit scores below 520.)  Worse yet, the subprime loans for used vehicles comprise 55% of the market in the third quarter of 2013.  But, then again, no need to worry about subprime lending, because this time is different.  Right?   

Tuesday, December 17, 2013

Will the Fed Announce Its "Taper" Intentions Tomorrow?


Wall Street is waiting to see what the Fed will do about its future purchasing plans for tapering $85 billion worth of mortgage-backed securities and Treasury bonds per month, or a trillion dollars per year.  I, for one, don't believe that the Fed has the nerve to taper (cut back on its security purchases) at this time.  Or, should I say Wall Street will not allow the Fed to taper just yet?  Wall Street just likes that $1 trillion per year just a little too much.  My guess is the so-called "taper" will occur sometime during the first quarter of 2014.

Sunday, December 15, 2013

Dionysus Exiquus: The Answers



Dionysus Exiguus was a member of the Scythian monk community.  He is known as the inventor of the Anno Domini (AD) era (year of the Lord), which is used to number the years of both the Gregorian and Julian calendars.  However, what has probably been lost in history is his major role in the reason why Christians celebrate Christmas! 
Coming to Rome sometime between 500 AD and 525 AD, Dionysus Exiguus arrived upon the time of the Solstice festival celebrating the birthday of the sun.  He witnessed all of Rome in celebration and revelry.  Wreaths of greenery were hung on the doors of homes as emblems of the sun.  Everyone exchanged gifts and debauchery parties were everywhere.
Learning that these practices in Rome were in honor of the ancient sun idol (Mithras), Dionysus Exiguus was shocked and dismayed.  Reasoning that it was impossible to stand in the way of such, or even change this so-called pagan holiday, he sought to change the meaning for it by claiming it to be the celebration of the birth of the Messiah.  Thus, the celebration of Christmas was born.

Thursday, December 12, 2013

What Has Caused the Debasement of the U.S. Dollar?

Since 1913, the dollar has lost nearly 90% of its value, as measured in terms of the Swiss Franc, and the purchasing power of that dollar has collapsed, as measured by the CPI.  Why?  The significance of 1913 was the creation of the Federal Reserve System.  The significance of 1971 was when President Nixon took the nation off the gold standard.  Up until 1971, the growth of the money supply (creation of dollars in circulation) was directly tied to the amount of gold that the U.S. held.  In other words, the gold standard was a constraint on our central banker, Fed, to create dollars.  The only way that more dollars could be created was by having more gold.  Today, the Fed has no constraint on its ability to create dollars.  It's monetary policy of QEs has enlarged it balance sheet by close to $4 trillion.  That is, the creation of money out of thin air!  The consequences of such actions were for the dollar's value to plummet against the Swiss Franc and the destruction of the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar.

Wednesday, December 11, 2013

Bulls Gone Mad!

Currently, we have 4x as many bulls as bears, which is a record high.  From the following chart, it simply implies that now may be a good time to lighten-up on those equity positions in the portfolio, or get out of equities completely.


Ryan-Murray Budget Deal: A Total Mockery of Fiscal Contraint

Let me be perfectly clear that this so-called budget deal is nothing but a farce.  This budget deal does nothing to solve our out-of-control federal spending and our ever-increasing national debt.  As a matter of fact, this deal will cause federal spending to increase by $45 billion when spending was scheduled to drop by approximately $20 billion through sequestration.  Also, the Ryan-Murray deal promises to reduce the deficit by $28 billion over the next ten years.  However, the federal government will spend around $40 trillion over the next ten years.  The math tells me that deficit reduction amount equates to 0.007% of federal spending over the ten-year period.  What a joke!  To add further insult to economic sanity, the Ryan-Murray deal will add something like $8 trillion to our national debt over this time horizon for a total of $25 trillion


Tuesday, December 10, 2013

Silver: Update From My Post of December 4

From my post, dated December 4, which was entitled, "Silver: Dollar Cost Averaging," I stated that the momentum indicators for $SLV were extremely oversold at these price levels ($19).  Further, I went on to say that a bounce within its current Stage 4 Selling Phase could result in $SLV rising between $22-$24.  So far, so good.  See the following chart.


Dichotomy Between Earnings and Prices

Fundamental analysis, as an investment tool, states that the price of any financial asset is the present value (PV) of expected cash flows.  In regard to equities (stocks), that would be a firm's earnings.  Higher the firm's earnings should result in higher price for the firm's stock.  Well, there is definitely a disconnect between a firms earnings and its price.  (See the following chart.)  Since the 2007 peak in EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization), the S&P 500's EBITDA has fallen 7%, but the S&P 500 has risen 15%.  Therefore, from the perspective of a value investor, who uses fundamental analysis, this market, as measured by the S&P 500, is not cheap.  Why the dichotomy?  Look no further than the Fed's QE policies, which has created this monster equity bubble.

Monday, December 09, 2013

U.S. Treasury "Out" Of GM For $10.5 Billion Loss on its Original Investment


The U.S. Treasury has finally sold its last holdings of GM for a total loss of $10.5 billion.  Thank you, once again, U.S. Taxpayer for your most gracious generosity.  Your utter kindness makes me speechless at a time like this!  At least all is not loss, because our government can now take the proceeds from the sale and double-down its investment in "Obamacare." 

Saturday, December 07, 2013

Math Question From "Common Core"


The problem, which to me is incomprehensible, comes from a Houghton Mifflin Assessment Guide.  Therefore, we must be teaching our children to make up answers when there is not enough data to arrive at a logical solution.  However, if our children come up with a process in arriving at a solution to any incomprehensible question, I guess it would be counted as correct.  This math question appears among a larger set of basically similar math problems here. The above problem involving Juanita appears on page AG102.

U.S. Secretary of Education, Arne Duncan, has promised to improve education quality by pushing for the implementation of the Common Core State Standards Initiative with the likes of the above math question.  Does any of this sound familiar to the likes of the "Affordable Health Care Act," or better known as Obamacare?  It simply tells me that the federal government is not very good at doing anything.


Friday, December 06, 2013

Watch the Pro-Gun, Daniel Defense Ad the NFL Won't Run During the Super Bowl

Way too much sex, violence, and assault rifles.  Then again, you will have to judge for yourself if the NFL made the right decision.


Car and Student Loans Account for 95% of All Consumer Credit Issued in Past Year


Now, let me get this straight. 95% of all "Consumer Loans" were issued to students, who have no credit score and no future job prospects, and individuals, who purchased new cars with a credit score below 659, which, which-by-the way, is considered sub-prime.  Oh, this is going to end so very well.  Once again, I know what you are thinking; and I agree.  Why?  Because none of my economic/financial rants matters to anyone until they matter to everyone.

What is the Real "Unemployment Rate in the U.S.?

Well, the BLS reported earlier today that the unemployment rate for November is currently at 7% (U3), which is down from the October rate of 7.3% (U3).  Does anyone really believe that 7% rate besides Wall Street?  Simply look at the following chart, which is provided by "ShadowStats,"for what the true unemployment rate happens to be in this country.  No, the rate is not 7%, nor 12.5% (U6) but closer to 24% (Solid Blue Line)!


Thursday, December 05, 2013

Please Buy the Excess Merchandise (Inventory)

Over the past year, nominal GDP has risen $534 billion of which 56%, or $300 billion was due to nothing else but inventory hoarding by businesses.  The problem with inventory hoarding is that at some point it will have to be "unhoarded," usually at much lower prices, which will comprised corporate profit margins and reduce GDP growth.

Wednesday, December 04, 2013

Silver: Dollar-Cost Averaging


Complete Extinction of Bears on Wall Street

 
If I am reading the above chart correctly, just maybe the "Bulls" should not get too excited, because previous market tops correspond to today's current readings. Just take a look for yourself.  But, I know most of you are saying, but this time is different, because the Fed has our back.  That is, one giant "PUT" at current prices.  However, if you look at the history of this ratio, it has happened 15 times in the last 24 years with stocks falling 79% of the time in the following 3 months.  


Have a Public Pension? You May Want to be Concerned!


Detroit's bankruptcy has been ruled legal.  Let the haircuts begin.  That is, pensioners will likely receive something like "eleven cents on the dollar."  The courts ruled that pensions are not protected by state constitutions.  Why?  Because federal bankruptcy laws trump state constitutional laws when it comes to bankruptcy.  Article 1, Section 8 of our Constitution states as follows: "To establish an uniform Rule of Naturalization, and uniform Laws on the subject of Bankruptcies throughout the United States."  In other words, pensions are just like any other debt when it comes to bankruptcy.  Take heed pensioners of California and Illinois.  You are next in line!  Like I been saying for the past several years that if you have a pension in Illinois see if you can take a lump-sum distribution and get the "you know what" out of the state.


Tuesday, December 03, 2013

Will the Real Economy Place Stand Up!



No, it is not the S&P 500.  S&P 500 is simply suppose to make you feel better because of the wealth effect caused by the Fed's QEs.  Keep-in-mind that what goes up must come down!

The Federal Reserve and Wall Street Complicit in Robbing You of $400 Billion of Interest Income Per Year

You, "Main Street" are being robbed of $400 billion a year thanks to the "Zero Interest Rate Policy" of the Fed's "Quantitative Easing" program.  That is according to the FDIC's Quarterly Banking Profile, which states as follows:

“Chief among the data points to be noted is that net interest expense, which is the money paid to depositors at banks, continues to fall.  While all banks earned about $118 billion in interest income last quarter, they paid just $13 billion to depositors, a graphic example of the “financial repression” used by the Fed to subsidize the US banking industry.  Via QE, the Fed is subsidizing all banks to the tune of over $100 billion per quarter in artificially depressed interest cost and income to depositors of all stripes.

Prior to the 2007 financial crisis, total interest expense for all US banks was over $100 billion every three months and interest income was almost $200 billion.  In order to maintain the net interest margin for banks at +/- $100 billion per quarter, the Fed is robbing US savers, including companies, investors and the elderly, of almost the same amount each quarter in badly needed income.”

This Fed policy has done nothing to assist "Main Street," but it has enhanced "Wall Street," especially those "Too Big to Fail Banks!"  Speaking of banks, the concentration (financial power) of the number of banks has been staggering since 1986.  In 1986, we had a total of 18,000 banks in the U.S.  Today, the number of banks is 6, 891, or a decline of 62%.  In other words, the "Too Big to Fail Banks" have become larger and the small banks have either merged or exited the industry, which has reduced competition and harmed "Main Street."


Saturday, November 30, 2013

Taxpayers are the Fools, Working Is Stupid

Just ask Lucy from Austin, TX. 


Don't Forget to Set Your Scales Back

It's amazing on how this simple trick really works until you try to put your clothes on.  On a more serious note, do you know why we observe Thanksgiving?  Read on and may learn something new today.

The civil war between 1860 and 1865 is the original reason for the observance known today as “Thanksgiving Day.”  (I wonder how many people know that fact?)  A Presidential Proclamation was made in October 1865 by Lincoln’s successor, Andrew Johnson.  His proclamation established the national observance of this secular day, but academia has promoted the idea that the Pilgrims were somehow responsible for it.
  
The Pilgrims were a pious people who were looking for a new life away from religious persecution.  They had a great deal in common with the "Quakers" (Society of Friends) that developed later in the 17th century.  Both sects promoted a separation from the pagan influences that still remained in Protestantism.
   
Below is the proclamation made by the President Andrew Johnson for the observance of Thanksgiving Day, with the reason given. 
(October 28, 1865):
“Whereas it has pleased Almighty God during the year which is now coming to an end to relieve our beloved country from the fearful scourge of civil war and to permit us to secure the blessings of peace, unity, and harmony, with a great enlargement of civil liberty; and

Whereas our Heavenly Father has also during the year graciously averted from us the calamities of foreign war, pestilence, and famine, while our granaries are full of the fruits of an abundant season; and

Whereas righteousness exalted a nation, while sin is a reproach to any people:  Now, therefore, be it known that I, Andrew Johnson, President of the United States, do hereby recommend to the people thereof that they do set apart and observe the first Thursday of December next as a day of national thanksgiving to the Creator of the Universe for these great deliverances and blessings.  (Note: date was changed during the early 20th century) And I do further recommend that on that occasion the whole people make confession of our national sins against His infinite goodness, and with one heart and one mind implore the divine guidance in the ways of national virtue and holiness.

In testimony whereof I have hereunto set my hand and caused the seal of the United States to be affixed.  Done at the city of Washington, this 28th day of October, A.D. 1865, and of the Independence of the United States of America the ninetieth.”


In addition, President Lincoln made the following proclamation in 1864:

"It has pleased Almighty God to prolong our national life another year, defending us with His guardian care against unfriendly designs from abroad and vouchsafing to us in His mercy many and signal victories over the enemy, who is of our own household.  It has also pleased our Heavenly Father to favor as well our citizens in their homes as our soldiers in their camps and our sailors on the rivers and seas with unusual health.  He has largely augmented our free population by emancipation and by immigration, while He has opened to use new sources of wealth and has crowned the labor of our workingmen in every department of industry with abundant rewards.  Moreover, He has been pleased to animate and inspire our minds and hearts with fortitude, courage, and resolution sufficient for the great trial of civil war into which we have been brought by our adherence as a nation to the cause of freedom and humanity, and to afford to us reasonable hopes of an ultimate and happy deliverance from all our dangers and afflictions:
Now, therefore, I, Abraham Lincoln, President of the United States, do hereby appoint and set apart the last Thursday in November next as a day which I desire to be observed by all my fellow-citizens, wherever they may then be, as a day of thanksgiving and praise to Almighty God, the beneficent Creator and Ruler of the Universe.  And I do further recommend to my fellow-citizens aforesaid that on that occasion they do reverently humble themselves in the dust and from thence offer up penitent and fervent prayers and supplications to the Great Disposer of Events for a return of the inestimable blessings of peace, union, and harmony throughout the land which it has pleased Him to assign as a dwelling place for ourselves and for our posterity throughout all generations.
In testimony whereof I have hereunto set my hand and caused the seal of the United States to be affixed. 
Done at the city of Washington, this 20th day of October, A.D. 1864, and of the Independence of the United States the eighty-ninth."
 

Friday, November 29, 2013

Bitcoin (Digital Currency) Now Worth More Than Gold


You know that this is not going to end well when Bitcoin, digital currency, is selling for what gold is (1 unit of Bitcoin = $1,242).  Just look at that "parabolic" rise in Bitcoin.  It is hard to believe that individuals actually believe that a digital unit code currency is worth the same as an ounce of physical gold.  Can anyone say, insanity/mania?  And, Bitcoin is not the only digital currency; it has 37 brothers and sisters that one can purchase.  I don't know about you, but I will take the physical gold any day over all those digital currencies.

Tuesday, November 26, 2013

Are Long-Term Gasoline Prices Heading Up or Down?

 
I would not be concerned about the recent 5% jump in prices.  Yes, no one wants to pay higher prices at the pump.  However, I would be more interested in looking at the price action over the past three years, and see if one can ascertain about prices going forward.  That is, look at the above chart and notice the "Lower Price Tops" going back to 2011.  This type of "chart pattern" is referred to as a "descending-horizontal triangle," which bearish (good for consumer) for gasoline prices.  Currently, support for gasoline at the pump is approximately $3.15 on average throughout the U.S., or approximately $2.40 for the wholesale gasoline futures.  If the support at $3.15 is taken out, that would usher in weaker prices at the pump, which is exactly what I expect to happen.  Why?  Because we are in a "deflationary environment," and it is going to get a whole lot worse.  In other words, forget about inflation for the time being, worry about "DEFLATION" on all asset prices!


Monday, November 25, 2013

Why is This Man Smiling?



The man in the picture is Mike Duke, who just retired as CEO of Wal-Mart.  The reason for his smile is that his retirement package, to which he is now entitled, is a whopping $113 million, or about 6,182 times greater than the average 401(k) balance of a typical Wal-Mart worker.  To say the least, Mike Duke will not be your typical Wal-Mart shopper this holiday season.

Wednesday, November 20, 2013

Executive Order #6102


President Franklin Roosevelt signed Executive Order #6102 requiring all gold to be handed over to the government.  The government gave everyone approximately one month from April 3, 1933 to May 1, 1933 to return all gold coins, gold bullion and gold certificates to the Federal Reserve in exchange for $20.67 per ounce.  Failure to do this was punishable by a $10,000 fine, which is equivalent to over $150,000 in today's dollars and/or up to ten years in prison.  Wow!  Could it happen again?  This, of course, is a rhetorical question, and you already know the answer.

Thursday, November 14, 2013

Medicaid Consequences of Obamacare

If you have ever enrolled in Medicaid or are contemplating signing up for it, please read on.  “The current law will result in your house and other financial assets being seized to pay all Medicaid-incurred expenses if and when you die.  Sorry, but that is the current law.  Therefore, make sure you spend and/or give away all equity you have to the limit of your ability if you are currently on Medicaid or have ever used this programNow, if you have Medicaid or ever have used it, the reverse mortgage strategy makes perfect financial sense, especially for older Americans.”  Why?  You definitely want to draw down the size of those financial assets to make sure Obamacare (federal government) cannot seize those assets upon your death.  In other words, there really is no such thing as a free lunch.

Tuesday, November 12, 2013

It's All About Wall Street, Not Main Street!


 I have been posting for quite sometime about the true intent of quantitative easing (QE) by the FED was to benefit Wall Street and not Main Street.  Well, in today's Wall Street Journal, a former Fed official, Andrew Huszar had this to say: "I can only say: I'm sorry, America. As a former Federal Reserve official, I was responsible for executing the centerpiece program of the Fed's first plunge into the bond-buying experiment known as quantitative easing. The central bank continues to spin QE as a tool for helping Main Street. But I've come to recognize the program for what it really is: the greatest backdoor Wall Street bailout of all time.

Wow.  What a confession!  But, wait, he goes on to say: "It wasn't long before my old doubts resurfaced. Despite the Fed's rhetoric, my program wasn't helping to make credit any more accessible for the average American. The banks were only issuing fewer and fewer loans. More insidiously, whatever credit they were extending wasn't getting much cheaper. QE may have been driving down the wholesale cost for banks to make loans, but Wall Street was pocketing most of the extra cash."

And, the impact to date of all this QE to the tune of the Fed's $4 trillion investment.  Well, the Fed's ROI has been to increase GDP by a mere 0.25%, or $40 billion.  But, the stock prices of those Wall Street banks have seen their stock prices more than "triple" since March 2009.  These institutions are the so-called "Too-Big-Too-Fail" money center banks.  These banks, which are only .2% of all the banks in the U.S., control in excess of 70% of all U.S. Bank assets.  To say the least, the Fed has accomplished its mission of enhancing the wealth of Wall Street Banks at the direct expense of Main Street. 


Thursday, November 07, 2013

$INDU Heading Back Down to its 50-Day EMA


Twitter (TWTR)


Twitter just opened-up 75% from its IPO price, which beats Facebook on its opening day.  As of now, Facebook (FB) has a "market cap" of $117 billion; and Twitter (TWTR) has a current "market cap" of around $30 billion.  Can anyone say "irrational exuberance?"  But, then again, with the likes of Bernanke and soon to be Yellen in the "Quantitative Easing" driving seat, the current market believes that it's rational exuberance.