The bear rally since March has been sharp, and that has prompted some analysts to declare a bottom for the market and that the worst is over. Matter of fact, the headline in this week's front page of Barron's states, "Is This Bull Run For Real?" According to its "Big Money Poll," the majority of portfolio managers agree. They expect the DJIA to be up 7% by the end of the year and 17% by this time next year.
Ok, let's look at the evidence. See the following chart for the S&P 500 that depicts the time span from June 2001 to June 2003. Please observe the relationship between the price and its 50-day EMA and 200-day EMA.
Now, let's look at the current time frame. Obviously we are no where close to the bull cross or the price of the S&P 500 penetrating the 200-day EMA. See the following chart:
No comments:
Post a Comment