Monday, June 07, 2010

Start of a New "Bear Market?"

Point and Figure (P&F) Charts are excellent tools for identifying what phase (cycle) the market is in for any give time frame.   There are four phases to any market cycle.  The accumulating phase, advancing phase (bull market), distributing phase, and declining phase (bear market).  The following chart depicts the various phases that the market has gone through over the past year.  I have used BGU for this illustration.  (BGU seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, of 300% of the performance of the Russell 1000 (Large Cap) index.)


That proverbial bottom-line is that the market has just entered the declining phase (Bear) when the major support (Green) line was penetrated on the down side.  I plan on using any market strength to exit my remaining SPY (40%) positions (unless stopped out) and start accumulating inverse ETFs, such as DXD, SDS, QID, and TZA.
 

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