Friday, August 07, 2009

U.S. Job Losses Slow As Rate Drops to 9.4%

Bureau of Labor reports that job losses declined just 247,000 in July, while the unemployment rate surprisingly fell to 9.4% from 9.5%. Why the improvement? I contend that the answer lies with the "Baby Boomers" leaving the civilian labor force to go on Social Security. Look at the following chart provided by BLS. Notice the decline in the category "Not in the Labor Force" from May to July. So, on the surface the job situation does indeed look better. However, I believe we are going to see more and more "Baby Boomers" apply for Social Security as soon as they are eligible and not wait until they reach 66 or 67. What does that say about the immediate financial viability of Social Security and Medicare?
Note: To enlarge the chart, double-click inside of it.

Therefore, drop in unemployment rate is caused by drop in the civilian labor force, which I contend was caused by "Baby Boomers" leaving the labor force for Social Security. Let's look at the math with the following example: 19 people are unemployed out of 200 in the labor force = 9.5% unemployment rate. Then, 1 of those unemployed individuals leaves the labor force. Now, 18 people are unemployed out of 199 in the labor force = 9.0% unemployment rate. Folks, it is all about the math!

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