Saturday, August 01, 2009

Weekly Update on S&P 500: 15- and 40-Week EMAs

I have expanded the time horizon for this week's update. The weekly S&P 500 chart goes back to 1972 (some 37 years). What I want you to observe is how accurate the exponential moving average strategy has been in identifying long-term bull and bear markets.

Most market pundits have already preordained that a new bull market is upon us! The cover of Newsweek just proclaimed that the "recession" is over. For me, I will let the exponential moving address speak for itself. Until the 15-week EMA exceeds the 40-week EMA on a Friday's close, everything else is market noise.
Note: To enlarge the chart, double-click inside of it.

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