On Wednesday, October 31, I made the following statement: "The current consensus for the NFP number is approximately +123,000. However, given the revisions by ADP, my estimate is +85,000 (+/- 30,000)."
The BLS reported this morning that 171,000 jobs were added in October with the unemployment rate rising to 7.9% from 7.8%. So, my estimate of 85,000 was way off by 86,000 jobs. Not so fast! Why? Because that infamous Birth/Death adjustment came in at adding 90,000 statistical jobs, which by the way these phantom jobs have added 568,000 year to date to the total. Therefore, if one subtracts off the phantom jobs of 90,000 form the so-called 171,000 jobs added, you arrive at 81,000 jobs added, which is darn close to my forecast of 85,000.
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